by Jeremy Larsen
Polling for Sweden’s parliamentary elections in September indicate a strong chance for the Social Democratic Party (Socialdemokraterna) to take back the prime ministerial spot, potentially rejoining Nordic neighbours Denmark, Iceland and Norway in having governments led by social democrats.
Social democrats across the Nordics have long been a force to reckon with, having cemented their positions as major mainstream political parties in their respective countries. As new political contexts emerge, some of these parties have opted to shift policy priorities and tighten their rhetoric to stay relevant, typically in ways that diverge from traditional centre-left values.
The Social Democrats remain Sweden’s most popular party, being the largest party in the Swedish parliament (Riksdag) after the 2022 elections and topping national opinion polls since the early 2010s. According to SVT, the Social Democrats lead polling at 30.5% of the vote, with the Centre Party (Centerpartiet), Green Party (Miljöpartiet) and Left Party (Vänsterpartiet) bringing the opposition to a total of 53.9% in opinion polling.
Following a trend set by Denmark’s Social Democrats after the 2015 migrant crisis, Sweden’s Social Democratic Party has hardened their stance on migration and called for stronger public safety and defence, tenets most often associated with conservative politicians. Like in Denmark, this change in attitude was a deliberate choice to defend against the rise in popularity of the parliamentary party furthest to the right.
While the actual final results and post-election negotiations will determine the return of Social Democratic Party leader Magdalena Andersson to the prime minister position, consistent popularity and successful elections for social democrats are a unique Nordic trend. It points to the efficacy of this new style of social democracy, one that sets Nordic social democrats apart from their European partners.
The new identity for SocDems in the Nordics
Socialists and social democrats in the wider EU haven’t been remarkably popular, with the Party of European Socialists (PES) currently hosting only four of 27 heads of government in the bloc, making their reputation in the Nordics an exception to the wider rule.
You only have to look back to 2021 for the last time all Nordic countries had social democratic prime ministers. It was Sweden who was the first to break the trend when the current right-wing government was formed after elections a year later. The first election under Andersson’s leadership, the Social Democrats came out of the vote as the largest party and had gained seven seats in the Riksdag, but the party’s left-wing parliamentary partners failed to secure a majority for a red-green coalition government.
Nordic countries are often associated with the traits of social democracy due to their emphasis on welfare, social equality and trust in governance. This has given Nordic parties within PES an inherent edge over their European counterparts. The key challenge for social democrats in the Nordics has been adapting the centre-left message to new contexts.
Migration and public safety remain major election topics in Sweden. The national-conservative Sweden Democrats (Sverigedemokraterna) have banked on the consequences of the 2015 migrant crisis to emerge as the Riksdag’s second largest party, providing confidence & supply to the incumbent government.
Members of PES are split on the topic of migration, with leaders like Denmark’s Mette Frederiksen taking a notably more hardline approach than Spain’s Pedro Sánchez, most recently seen in her response to the Ceuta crisis in which she strained the relationship with one of her only PES allies in the European Council.
Frederiksen famously toughened her party’s stance on migration to quell the threat from Denmark’s far-right Danish People’s Party (Dansk Folkeparti) at the 2019 elections, and has in recent times sided with right-wingers like Italy’s Giorgia Meloni to push for stronger migration control in the EU. Frederiksen’s divergence from the value of migrant acceptance has brought her rebukes from Italian and Spanish socialists, but they haven’t given her pause.
Taking a note from Frederiksen’s playbook, Sweden’s Social Democrats have highlighted their intention to keep strict migration policies in place in their election pitch. These likely include strengthened returns and a proposal to enable revoking citizenship for serious crime offenders, among other rules laid out by the Swedish Migration Agency (Migrationsverket).
Andersson’s vocal support of strong migration policies since taking lead of her party in 2021 aligns her rhetoric with the upcoming election policy focus. Like Frederiksen, she has sacrificed a pro-migrant stance in her party’s policy to keep centre-left economic, social and democratic policies attractive.
Convincing the working class
The rise in popularity of the Sweden Democrats shows how much migration has become a central topic in Sweden. But as the Social Democrats try to show that they’re serious about migration and crime, they risk losing the working class on broader concerns.
According to Eric Sundström writing for The Progressive Post, the Social Democrats received 31.8% of workers’ votes while the Sweden Democrats came out with 28.8% in the 2022 parliamentary elections — a worryingly close result for a party historically linked to fighting for the working class.
Sundström attributes this in part to the Social Democrats’ failure to appeal to working families by presenting reforms for improving welfare and schools as well as presenting plans for job growth. Doubling down on migration and crime meant competing the election on the right’s terms, without the chance to instil hope in voters.
The upcoming election outcome for the Swedish Social Democrats will give us more insight into how effectively they’ve taken learnings from their previous election campaign. For now, their choice to place unemployment, electricity prices, schools and healthcare before migration, crime and defence in their election framework could be a sign of them trying to hit the right balance for future success.
Nordic social democracy on the European stage
Despite misalignments in their respective governments’ ideologies, the Nordic countries have still stood strong together in the face of geopolitical tensions. Implementing sanctions on Russia, supporting Ukraine and increasing defence cooperation have most notably been major points of agreement for the Nordics.
Returning to the 2021 scenario of social democratic leadership across the region wouldn’t necessarily change the way Nordic states cooperate with one another, but could influence the social democratic playbook across the continent.
In late 2025, Mette Frederiksen and former British Labour Prime Minister Keir Starmer released a joint op-ed in The Guardian. In the article, the two leaders defended cracking down on irregular migration as necessary for defending democracy, and called on their “friends across Europe” to join them.
Starmer’s alignment with the Danish Prime Minister was a marked shift away from the more pro-migration stance of the preceding Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn. It is one of the biggest signs of the appeal of the new Nordic style of social democracy outside of the northern region.
When it comes to European level politics, cooperation between like-minded political parties and politicians are commonplace. Not just in the way of European political parties like PES, but cooperative groupings across governments represented in the European Council such as the Visegrad Group (Czechia, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia) or the E6 (France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland and Spain) coming together to push for aligned policies.
Cracks formed in the relationship of PES members over the topic of migration only weaken the combined strength of socialist and social democratic collaboration on the European stage. Recently, Frederiksen has kicked off European Council summits with pre-meetings with Meloni and liberal Dutch PM Rob Jetten (though this trend started with previous PM Dick Schoof) to align on policies, especially on migration.
On the other hand, noteworthy cooperation on the European level between the two major PES prime ministers Frederiksen and Sánchez is near zero. This shows that the new Nordic social democrat playbook worries little for labels, bringing Frederiksen’s ideological flexibility to the European level.
As mentioned earlier, Italian and Spanish MEPs from the Socialists & Democrats (S&D) grouping in the European Parliament came out critical of Frederiksen’s rhetoric and policy alignment with Meloni. But with tough elections on the horizon for socialists and social democrats in Italy, Spain and France, time will tell if European socialists and social democrats can hold onto their values for future electoral success or if they will eventually try put their own spin on the Nordic playbook.
In the European Parliament, the S&D group struggle to show unity due to their internal disagreements, which only emboldens their political opponents. This situation can potentially carry on as a long-term trait of the group, but unless the group can learn to settle their differences or if pro-migration party members are voted out and replaced with migration-sceptic candidates or vice versa, the unlikely scenario of a parliamentary group split always remains a possibility.
Should Magdalena Andersson return as Sweden’s Prime Minister under this new style of centre-leftism, it may prove hard for other European candidates to resist taking note from it to pour cold water on their respective far right challengers. If she were to become PM, Andersson and Frederiksen’s relationship in the European Council could also influence PES and S&D members, either to further raise the alarm or to follow by example.
For the time being, that question will begin to be answered at Sweden’s parliamentary elections on 13th September, which precedes Finland’s April elections where the Social Democratic Party also lead early opinion polling.
