Centre Party (Centerpartiet) voters in Sweden would rather see their party enter a government alongside the Left Party than face another election, according to a new opinion poll commissioned by public broadcaster SVT. The findings highlight a growing gap between the preferences of the party’s supporters and the position maintained by its leadership during the difficult negotiations over Sweden’s next government.
The survey, conducted by Indikator Opinion, found that Centre Party voters prefer a coalition including the Social Democrats (Socialdemokraterna), Green Party (Miljöpartiet) and Left Party (Vänsterpartiet) to a snap election.
A majority of Centre Party supporters would instead prefer another election to entering a centre-right government dependent on the Sweden Democrats (Sverigedemokraterna).
Centre Party voters are more open to the Left than their leadership
The findings contrast with the position of Centre Party leader Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist, who has repeatedly ruled out allowing the Left Party to enter the next government.
The disagreement has become one of the main obstacles facing Social Democratic leader Magdalena Andersson, whose four-party parliamentary majority has struggled to agree on the composition of a new cabinet.
Per Oleskog Tryggvason, head of opinion research at Indikator Opinion, said the results reflect a political shift among Centre Party supporters, who have increasingly begun to identify with the left.
“It becomes clear that the antipathy is stronger towards the right than towards the left.”
The distinction matters because the Centre Party, traditionally associated with liberal and centre-right politics, has rejected any arrangement that would give the Sweden Democrats influence over the government.
SVT’s reporting on internal discussions within the Centre Party also suggests that opposition to cooperation with the Sweden Democrats is stronger within the party than its resistance to working with the Left outside the cabinet.
Most red-green voters would rather compromise than vote again
The wider survey reveals a similar preference for avoiding another election among supporters of all four parties.
83% of the red-green voters surveyed said they would prefer a government in which all four parties receive ministerial posts, compared with just 8% who would prefer a snap election. Another 9% were undecided.
Even when presented with a more limited government consisting only of the Social Democrats and Greens, without ministers from either the Centre or Left parties, 66% preferred that arrangement to another election, which was chosen by 16%.
These percentages refer to the combined sample of voters from the four parties, rather than Centre Party supporters alone.
The results also reveal some flexibility among Left Party voters. A narrow majority would prefer a government formed by the Social Democrats and Greens, without Left Party ministers, to another election.
That contrasts with the position maintained by Left Party leader Nooshi Dadgostar, who has insisted that her party must be represented in any government dependent on its parliamentary support.
The survey therefore suggests that some voters on both sides of the dispute are more willing to accept compromises than their respective party leaderships.
Centre and Left parties are seen as responsible for the deadlock
The poll also asked red-green voters which party bears the greatest responsibility for the difficulties in forming a government.
The results were closely divided between the two parties whose demands have proved hardest to reconcile.
41% identified the Centre Party as primarily responsible, while 39% pointed to the Left Party. The Social Democrats were named by 12% and the Greens by just 1%.
At the same time, 70% of respondents considered an agreement between the four parties very or fairly likely.
Concern about the consequences of another election may be one reason for that expectation.
Asked which political grouping would strengthen its combined electoral support in a snap election, 42% expected the four Tidö parties to benefit, compared with just 14% who expected the red-green parties to gain.
Those figures measure voters’ expectations, not a forecast of the result of another election.
In a separate analysis for SVT, political commentator Elisabeth Marmorstein argued that the Social Democrats could have particularly strong reasons to avoid returning to the polls. Andersson would have to explain why her party had failed to form a government despite the parliamentary majority emerging from September’s election.
The four parties are finally meeting
The survey was published as the leaders of the four parties prepared to meet on Friday at a conference venue on Lidingö, outside Stockholm.
The meeting was organised by the Centre Party and is intended to establish a shared understanding of Sweden’s main challenges, with representatives of nine external organisations and public authorities also invited.
It is not formally a round of government negotiations, and no immediate agreement on cabinet positions is expected.
Nevertheless, bringing the four party leaderships together represents a step forward after weeks of disagreement.
Left Party deputy leader Ida Gabrielsson told TT, as reported by Sweden Herald, that even sitting around the same table could help move the discussions forward.
The Centre Party has continued to reject Left Party ministers, while the Left Party has maintained its demand to participate directly in government.
Andersson is due to report to Speaker Andreas Norlén on Monday 12 October on the progress of her renewed exploratory mandate. The Riksdag has confirmed that the exploratory process will eventually lead to a parliamentary vote on a candidate for prime minister.
For now, the new poll has added another dimension to the negotiations. The red lines dividing the political parties appear considerably stronger than those separating at least some of their voters. Whether that difference translates into greater room for compromise remains to be seen.
