Sweden’s birth rate has fallen to its lowest level in about two decades, and the effects are already visible in local services. In early January 2026, SVT reported that several municipalities in Östergötland and on Gotland have closed preschool (förskola) units or are planning reorganisations, as fewer children enter the system and municipal budgets and buildings are forced to adjust.
What the latest numbers say about Sweden’s birth rate
In Sweden, the drop is not just a perception but a measurable demographic shift. The National Board of Health and Welfare (Socialstyrelsen) reported that around 99,000 children were born in 2024, the lowest number since 2003, and that the number of deliveries per 1,000 women aged 15–49 fell to 41.8, the lowest level since national measurements began in 1973. The same statistics show that the average age of first-time mothers rose above 30 for the first time, reaching 30.1 in 2024.
Statistics Sweden (Statistiska centralbyrån, SCB) puts the number of births in 2024 at 98,500, and it frames the trend as a continued decline in fertility compared to the previous year. While the two figures differ slightly because they come from different statistical products and rounding, they point to the same reality for municipalities: fewer children will enter preschool and compulsory school cohorts in the coming years.
How municipalities are reshaping the preschool (förskola) network
The immediate policy impact is local. According to SVT’s survey of 13 municipalities in Östergötland and on Gotland, five reported closing a preschool in the past year, and eight said they have plans either to close a preschool or to restructure services because the child population is shrinking. The municipalities listed by SVT as having closed a preschool in the last year were Norrköping, Söderköping, Mjölby, Motala, and Region Gotland.
Monica Sonde, a director at the Swedish Association of Local Authorities and Regions (Sveriges Kommuner och Regioner, SKR), told SVT that when the number of children drops substantially, municipalities have to adjust both preschool and school facilities. She also argued that Östergötland does not stand out, describing a pattern visible across Sweden and pointing to Överkalix, in northern Sweden, as the only municipality that does not expect a decline in preschool-aged children over the coming five-year period.
Staffing, buildings and budgets: why fewer children is not only “savings”
A smaller preschool cohort can look like an opportunity to reduce costs, but municipal leaders and sector organisations describe a more complex transition. Closing a preschool unit is often linked to fixed costs that do not disappear quickly: contracts, maintenance, transport solutions, and the need to keep services geographically accessible, especially in rural areas where longer distances can change daily life for families.
SKR has repeatedly warned that adaptation is happening “for full” across municipalities and that the demographic shift is among the most significant in many years. In a December 2025 note, the organisation said that between the peak year 2019 and 2029 the number of children is expected to fall by more than 114,000 (around 19%), and that nearly 500 municipal preschool units have closed since 2021. At the same time, SKR argues that national reforms in education continue to add requirements, which means municipalities can face fewer children but not automatically lower expectations or costs per child.
The consequences reach beyond education planning. Socialstyrelsen’s 2024 figures also point to a “double shift”: fewer births, but a population of pregnant women with more risk factors, such as higher average age and higher BMI, which can demand more specialised and resource-intensive maternity and delivery care. In practice, the demographic shock is not evenly distributed across services. Some parts of the welfare system will face contraction, others expansion.
What Sweden’s demographic shift means for the Nordics and the EU
Sweden’s situation is part of a wider European pattern. Eurostat reported a record drop in births across the EU in 2023 and a total fertility rate of 1.38 live births per woman, down from 1.46 in 2022. Nordic statistics also show that fertility has reached record lows across much of the region, even in countries traditionally associated with family-friendly welfare policies.
In Sweden, political attention has been rising. Swedish Radio has reported that a government-appointed inquiry has started looking into the low birth rate and its potential economic consequences, an acknowledgement that demographic change is no longer a long-term issue but an immediate planning constraint.
For municipalities, however, the timeline is already here. Preschool closures and reorganisations are early signals of what could follow in primary schools, staffing needs, and the local tax base. In the short term, Sweden is likely to see more debates about how to use empty or underused public buildings, how to protect quality while consolidating services, and how to keep local communities viable when the next cohort is smaller than the last.
