Sweden’s next government could emerge through at least four different political routes after an election that left the two blocs separated by only three seats in the preliminary count. Opposition leader Magdalena Andersson currently has the strongest chance of becoming prime minister, but incompatible demands from the Centre Party and the Left Party mean that none of the available options is straightforward.
The opposition made up of Socialdemokraterna, Vänsterpartiet, Centerpartiet and Miljöpartiet currently has 176 seats, against 173 for the four Tidö parties. More than 200,000 late advance and overseas votes are still expected to be counted, however, and Sweden’s Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) expects the final parliamentary result only during the weekend after election day.
SVT’s political commentator Mats Knutson says Andersson has the best prospects of forming a government if the result holds, while describing exactly how she could do so as highly uncertain. The negotiations are likely to revolve around four main possibilities.
Scenario one: Andersson leads a minority government
The most direct route would be an Andersson-led minority government, most likely based around Socialdemokraterna and potentially Miljöpartiet, with the broader parliamentary support or tolerance of Centerpartiet and Vänsterpartiet.
Sweden’s system of negative parliamentarism makes such a government possible. A candidate for prime minister does not need 175 MPs to vote in favour. The candidate is approved as long as fewer than 175 MPs vote against.
The problem is that the two parties Andersson needs to keep on board entered the election with conflicting demands.
Vänsterpartiet leader Nooshi Dadgostar has demanded ministerial positions if her party is to approve a new government. Centerpartiet leader Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist, meanwhile, has said that C will not accept a government containing Vänsterpartiet and would rather face an extraordinary election.
There are already signs that the positions may become more flexible. Vänsterpartiet deputy leader Ida Gabrielsson said after the election that the parties would have to negotiate and compromise. Political scientist Jonas Hinnfors told DN that Vänsterpartiet may ultimately face the greatest pressure to retreat from its demand for cabinet seats, because rejecting an Andersson government could put the opposition’s narrow electoral advantage at risk.
In that scenario, V could support or tolerate a government without formally joining it, while C could claim that its central red line had been preserved.
Scenario two: the Centre Party gets its centrist government
Centerpartiet has proposed a more unconventional solution: a government bringing together Socialdemokraterna, Centerpartiet, Kristdemokraterna and Miljöpartiet.
Thand Ringqvist presented that combination before the election as an alternative to governments dependent either on Vänsterpartiet or Sverigedemokraterna.
Mathematically, the parties would have enough parliamentary weight to make such a government viable under the preliminary result. Politically, however, it would require major changes.
Kristdemokraterna campaigned as part of the Tidö bloc and its leader Ebba Busch said on election night that joining Andersson and the centre parties was not an option. Miljöpartiet has also previously been sceptical about Centerpartiet’s proposal, particularly because of the inclusion of KD.
The scenario becomes more relevant if negotiations between C and V fail completely. It would allow Andersson to become prime minister without depending on Vänsterpartiet, but only by persuading a party from the outgoing governing bloc to change sides.
Scenario three: Kristersson finds a way to stay
There is also a route, although currently a difficult one, through which Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson could remain in office even if his existing bloc finishes with fewer seats.
Kristersson has not treated the preliminary 176-173 result as the end of the government question. The Tidö parties have continued discussions, and their strategy would depend heavily on Centerpartiet.
The central obstacle is Sverigedemokraterna. Centerpartiet has ruled out supporting a government containing SD and, after the election, its party secretary Hannes Hervieu said the party was ready to negotiate with Socialdemokraterna instead, arguing that Kristersson’s governing platform had lost the election.
A potential opening emerged on Tuesday when Svenska Dagbladet, as reported by Sveriges Radio, cited SD sources saying the party could consider abandoning its demand for ministerial posts if that persuaded C to tolerate another Kristersson government. Other SD sources subsequently denied to Aftonbladet that such discussions were taking place.
Even without SD ministers, convincing Centerpartiet to support Kristersson would require a considerable political reversal. The party has explicitly chosen Andersson as its preferred prime ministerial candidate and continues to reject cooperation with Sverigedemokraterna.
The option nevertheless matters because a failure by Andersson to reconcile C and V would increase the pressure on other parties to consider arrangements they rejected during the campaign.
Scenario four: nobody compromises and Sweden votes again
The final scenario is an extraordinary election.
This would not happen immediately simply because negotiations take a long time. When the new Riksdag meets on 28 September, it will elect a Speaker (talmannen), who plays the central role in the government formation process. The Speaker can then propose candidates for prime minister.
A proposed prime minister is rejected only if at least 175 of the Riksdag’s 349 members vote against them.
If one candidate fails, the Speaker can try again. But there is a constitutional limit: after four rejected prime ministerial proposals, an extraordinary election must be held.
That prospect gives every party an incentive to compromise. Centerpartiet has nevertheless explicitly said it would prefer another election to accepting Vänsterpartiet in government, while V entered the post-election negotiations insisting that it should no longer simply provide votes without receiving government representation.
SVT’s analysis therefore places an extraordinary election among the possible endpoints if the parties remain locked into their pre-election positions.
The most important negotiations may be between C and V
The four scenarios are very different, but most depend on the same question: whether Centerpartiet and Vänsterpartiet can find a way to tolerate the same government.
Andersson does not necessarily need the two parties to govern together. She needs to prevent 175 MPs from voting against her. That gives the parties considerably more room for compromise than a conventional coalition negotiation would suggest.
For the moment, the first scenario appears to require fewer political reversals than the others. It would allow Andersson to lead a government while keeping V outside the cabinet, provided V accepts that outcome and C can reach an agreement with Socialdemokraterna.
But the parliamentary arithmetic is narrow enough that the starting point could still change. Late advance and overseas votes are due to be counted from 16 September, and the Election Authority now says the process could continue into Thursday before the final result is confirmed later in the week.
Only after that will Sweden know which parties actually hold the decisive seats. Then the harder count begins: finding enough MPs who are prepared not to vote against the next prime minister.
