Sweden’s opposition has widened its lead over the governing Tidö parties in the latest SVT/Verian voter barometer, around four months before the country’s September election. The May poll shows the red-green opposition bloc ahead by 10.7 percentage points, the largest bloc gap recorded by Verian since August 2023, while the parties backing Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson’s government lost support among male voters.
Male voters move away from the Tidö parties before Sweden’s election
The May survey points to a statistically significant decline for the Tidö parties compared with Verian’s February voter barometer. According to SVT, the governing side has lost voters both to the opposition and to abstention, as well as to parties outside parliament.
The shift is notable because the centre-right and Sweden Democrats-backed bloc has previously struggled most visibly with female voters. In this poll, however, the movement among men stands out. Verian’s head of opinion, Per Söderpalm, said support for the Tidö parties among male voters fell by four percentage points compared with April, a statistically significant decline.
The opposition shows the opposite trend among men, while uncertainty remains high among women. Söderpalm said the share of women not naming a party had risen to almost 20 percent, suggesting that the campaign may still be shaped by undecided voters as much as by bloc loyalty.
The red-green bloc opens its largest lead since 2023
The poll gives the Social Democrats a clear first place with 32.5 percent, followed by the Sweden Democrats at 18.9 percent and the Moderates at 17.2 percent. The Green Party rises to 7.9 percent, a statistically significant increase of 1.8 percentage points since April, while the Centre Party falls to 5.5 percent.
The Left Party is also measured at 7.9 percent, the Christian Democrats at 5.1 percent, and the Liberals at 2.0 percent, below the four-percent threshold needed to enter the Riksdag. Other parties are measured at 2.9 percent.
Taken together, the red-green parties lead the Tidö parties by 10.7 percentage points. For Sweden’s government, the result adds pressure at a delicate stage of the electoral cycle. The September election will test whether the Tidö Agreement — the cooperation framework between the Moderates, Christian Democrats, Liberals and Sweden Democrats — can still mobilise enough voters after a term marked by debates over migration, crime, the economy and Sweden’s new security position after joining NATO.
Stockholm strengthens the opposition’s electoral map
The poll also highlights the growing importance of the Stockholm region. According to Verian, voters in the capital area have become an increasingly clear strength for the opposition. The red-green parties now lead by almost 15 percentage points in the Stockholm region, with the advantage strongest in the city of Stockholm.
That matters in a proportional electoral system where bloc competition is shaped not only by national vote shares, but also by the capacity to hold urban, suburban and regional electorates. A stronger red-green profile in Stockholm could help the opposition consolidate support among younger, highly educated and metropolitan voters, while forcing the governing parties to defend ground in areas that are politically and demographically changing.
At the same time, a single poll does not decide an election. Verian’s survey was conducted between 27 April and 10 May 2026, based on around 3,000 interviews with people in the Sifo panel, supplemented by telephone interviews with voters aged 85 and above. Respondents were weighted to reflect demographic and political variables including gender, age, region, education and previous party preference.
A four-month campaign with unsettled voters
The May voter barometer gives Sweden’s opposition a clear advantage, but it also shows a campaign that remains open. The governing bloc is losing ground among men, the Green Party is gaining momentum, and the Liberals remain below the parliamentary threshold. At the same time, a significant share of women are undecided, leaving room for late shifts before election day.
For European observers, Sweden’s election will be watched as another test of how centre-right parties govern with support from radical-right partners, and how social-democratic and green forces respond after years of pressure on welfare, migration and security. The latest poll suggests that the opposition enters the final stretch with a stronger position, but the balance may still depend on turnout, undecided voters and whether the Tidö parties can rebuild support before September.
