The EU population is expected to reach a peak of 453.3 million people in 2029 before beginning a gradual decline, according to the latest demographic projections published by Eurostat. The decrease will be accompanied by a substantial ageing of European society, with fewer children and working-age residents and a larger share of people over 80.
The European Union had an estimated population of 452 million on 1 January 2026, around 706,000 more than one year earlier. This was the fifth consecutive year of population growth following the decline recorded during the Covid-19 pandemic.
However, the current expansion is expected to last only another few years. Eurostat estimates that the population will fall to approximately 445 million by 2050 and to 398.8 million by 2100.
This would represent a decline of about 53 million people, or 11.7%, between 2025 and the end of the century. By 2100, the EU population would be close to the level recorded during the second half of the 1970s.
EU population growth increasingly depends on migration
The EU has recorded more deaths than births every year since 2012. Despite this negative natural population change, immigration has continued to keep the overall population growing.
Eurostat’s latest figures show that positive net migration compensated for the gap between births and deaths again in 2025. The Union’s population consequently increased from around 451.3 million at the beginning of 2025 to 452 million at the beginning of 2026.
Population trends nevertheless differ significantly between member states. In 2025, the population increased in 16 EU countries. Malta, Cyprus and Luxembourg recorded the fastest proportional growth, while Latvia, Estonia and Hungary experienced the sharpest declines.
Germany remained the EU’s most populous member state at the beginning of 2026, with 83.5 million residents. France, Italy, Spain and Poland followed. Together, the five countries accounted for around two-thirds of the Union’s total population.
Europe will have fewer working-age residents
The demographic transition will change not only the size of the EU population, but also its age structure.
People aged between 20 and 64 represented approximately 58% of the population in 2025. Eurostat projects that their share will fall to 50% by 2100.
The proportion of children and young people aged under 20 is also expected to decline, from 20% to 17% over the same period.
Meanwhile, the share of residents aged between 65 and 79 is projected to increase slightly, from 16% to 17%. The most significant change concerns people aged 80 or older, whose share could rise from 6% in 2025 to 16% in 2100.
The shift could increase pressure on pension systems, healthcare services and long-term care while reducing the relative size of the workforce supporting them. It may also intensify competition between European countries for workers and reinforce the economic importance of labour migration.
Demographic change will also affect the Nordic region
The demographic transition will have direct consequences for Denmark, Finland and Sweden as EU member states. All three countries will participate in European debates over pensions, employment, healthcare and migration as the working-age population becomes proportionally smaller.
Finland already faces particularly visible demographic pressures linked to low birth rates and an ageing population. Sweden and Denmark have experienced stronger population growth in recent decades, partly supported by immigration, but they also face rising demand for elderly care and healthcare workers.
Norway and Iceland are not included in the EU population total. However, their close economic integration with the European Union means that changes in labour mobility, workforce availability and migration policy across the EU could also affect the wider Nordic labour market.
Eurostat stresses that its figures are projections rather than precise forecasts. They are based on assumptions about future fertility, mortality and migration and therefore represent one possible demographic scenario.
Even under different assumptions, however, Europe’s ageing population is expected to remain a central policy challenge. The approaching 2029 peak marks a turning point: future debates will increasingly focus not on managing population growth, but on adapting European economies and welfare systems to a smaller and older society.
