Finland population forecast: a new long‑range projection by consulting firm MDI indicates that by the 2040s the national headcount will peak below six million and then contract, with only 39 municipalities growing through 2050. Published on 16 September 2025, the forecast points to a structural shift since 2016 as deaths outnumber births across most of the country, raising urgent questions for labour supply, schools and eldercare.
Why births no longer offset deaths
Finland’s demographic outlook has turned decisively negative because the total fertility rate has fallen to historic lows while life expectancy remains high. Only about one in ten municipalities now records more births than deaths, and even there the balance is marginal.
The trend predates the pandemic and has persisted despite generous family policies, reflecting delayed parenthood and rising long‑term childlessness. Without a sustained rise in fertility, natural population change will remain negative well into the 2050s.
Immigration as the only short‑term lever
MDI’s population projection underscores that net immigration has been the main buffer preventing an outright population drop in the 2010s and early 2020s. However, under current trajectories—and assuming the eventual end of extraordinary inflows from Ukraine—immigration alone will no longer fully offset negative natural change by the 2040s. T
he working‑age population will stagnate and then shrink unless inflows increase and labour‑market integration improves.
Schools face a sharp contraction by 2032
The forecast anticipates around 96,000 fewer pupils in Finnish schools by 2032, a decline that will touch nearly all municipalities. Many localities—roughly one hundred—could see school‑age cohorts shrink by about one‑third by the early 2030s. This will pressure municipal finances and force consolidation of school networks, transport planning and teacher workforce deployment.
Ageing surge reshapes care demand
At the other end of the age pyramid, the number of people 84+ is projected to rise by roughly 142,000 by 2040 and 174,000 by 2050. This implies sustained growth in demand for long‑term care, geriatric services and accessible housing—costs that will concentrate in municipalities already facing revenue headwinds from shrinking tax bases.
Lapland bucks the trend—can it scale?
One notable exception is Finnish Lapland, where a tourism‑driven jobs boom has helped stabilise or lift local populations in hubs like Rovaniemi. The region illustrates that targeted economic specialisation, infrastructure and housing supply can bend the curve locally. Yet replication elsewhere will require credible growth engines and skills pipelines, not just marketing.
Where growth remains—and where it does not
MDI identifies growth primarily in Finland’s largest cities and a handful of surrounding municipalities, plus pockets in Western Finland sometimes dubbed the “Bible Belt,” where fertility tends to be higher. By contrast, Eastern and Central Finland face steep declines as migration chains to regional centres have weakened and natural decrease deepens.
Nordic and EU context: a shared fertility slump
Record‑low fertility is not unique to Finland: Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Iceland and Åland have all seen rates fall to, or near, historical lows, mirroring wider EU patterns. The Nordic model’s strong family benefits no longer guarantee replacement‑level fertility, suggesting that cultural preferences, housing costs, uncertainty and partnership dynamics play a growing role.
Policy options now on the table
Short‑ to medium‑term choices cluster around three fronts: (1) migration, with predictable residence pathways tied to skills shortages and faster recognition of qualifications; (2) family formation, including housing near jobs, affordable childcare and fertility health literacy; and (3) productivity and services, using technology and new care models to stretch limited labour, while consolidating school and service networks where populations decline. Without credible action, Finland’s demographic headwinds will compound regional inequality and fiscal pressure across the 2030s and 2040s.
The MDI forecast is a wake‑up call rather than a destiny. Urban cores and select regions will keep growing, but most municipalities must plan for fewer children, more very old residents and tighter labour markets. The strategic question for policymakers—and for the Nordics and the EU at large—is how to match people, places and productivity fast enough to keep economies dynamic as populations age and disperse.
