Sweden’s election 2026 is over, but the country may still be weeks away from knowing what its next government will look like. The opposition has emerged from election night with a narrow advantage, but the final count is still under way and the political blocs are separated by only a few seats. Even if that lead survives, the harder part may be turning it into a government that can be tolerated by the Riksdag.
The coming days will first be about counting votes. After that, attention will move to negotiations between parties whose positions on government cooperation remain difficult to reconcile.
Sweden’s election result is not final yet
The count continued on Monday after polling stations closed on Sunday evening. Sweden’s county administrative boards (Länsstyrelserna) will also conduct the final count, checking the preliminary results and counting personal votes.
A particularly important stage comes on Wednesday, when the so-called onsdagsrösterna, or “Wednesday votes”, begin to be counted. These include late advance votes and ballots sent from abroad and usually account for around 3% of all votes, according to SVT.
The Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) has warned that this part of the count could continue into Thursday. The authority currently expects the final parliamentary result to be completed during the weekend after election day.
With the blocs separated by such a narrow margin, those remaining ballots matter more than they normally would.
The first problem for Magdalena Andersson is the opposition itself
If the opposition retains its advantage, Socialdemokraterna leader Magdalena Andersson would be the most likely candidate to try to form a new government.
But the four parties currently grouped on the opposition side do not constitute a ready-made coalition.
The central conflict is between Vänsterpartiet and Centerpartiet. Vänsterpartiet has said that it wants ministerial posts in a government it is expected to support. Its formal position before the election was that it would not approve a government in which it was not represented.
Centerpartiet has drawn the opposite red line. Its leader Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist has said the party will not support a government that includes Vänsterpartiet, and has even said she would prefer an extraordinary election to allowing V into government. Centerpartiet instead proposed a centrist coalition involving Socialdemokraterna, Centerpartiet, Miljöpartiet and Kristdemokraterna.
That combination is politically complicated because Kristdemokraterna has spent the past parliamentary term on the other side of Swedish politics, as part of the Tidö cooperation supporting Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson.
Andersson has kept her options deliberately open. During the campaign she said she was prepared to cooperate with every parliamentary party except Sverigedemokraterna and argued that political “red lines” can change during negotiations. She also left open the possibility of a Social Democratic minority government that would seek different majorities for different policies.
Kristersson has not conceded the government question
The narrow result also means the outgoing government cannot simply be treated as finished before the count is complete.
On Monday, senior figures from both Socialdemokraterna and Moderaterna began discussing the result and the possible negotiations ahead. Kristersson has warned that if every party maintains all of its pre-election red lines, Sweden could struggle to produce any viable government.
The current centre-right bloc consists of Moderaterna, Sverigedemokraterna, Kristdemokraterna and Liberalerna. Unlike in 2022, when Sverigedemokraterna supported the government from outside, the relationship between the four parties has evolved during the legislature.
One major uncertainty before the election concerned Liberalerna. The party had previously opposed allowing Sverigedemokraterna into government, but its leadership changed course during 2026 and opened the possibility of SD holding ministerial posts after the election.
If the final seat distribution moves back towards Kristersson’s bloc, negotiations could therefore focus not only on whether he remains prime minister, but also on whether Sverigedemokraterna formally enters government for the first time.
Sweden does not require a prime minister to win a majority
The rules of Swedish government formation make the negotiations particularly important.
Sweden uses a system of negative parliamentarism. A candidate for prime minister does not need 175 MPs to vote in favour. Instead, the candidate is approved as long as fewer than 175 of the Riksdag’s 349 members vote against.
Abstentions can therefore be decisive. A party does not necessarily have to join a government, or even actively support it, to allow it to take office. It can simply refrain from voting against the candidate.
This creates several possible outcomes for Andersson. She could try to negotiate a formal coalition, lead a smaller minority government supported from outside, or seek agreements with different parties on individual issues.
The same principle would apply if Kristersson eventually had enough parliamentary support to remain in office.
September 28 will begin the formal parliamentary process
The newly elected Riksdag will assemble on 28 September. MPs will be formally called, and parliament will elect the Speaker (talmannen) and three deputy speakers.
The Speaker plays the central constitutional role in forming a government. If the current government resigns, the Speaker consults all parliamentary parties and identifies the candidate most likely to be tolerated by the Riksdag.
The new parliamentary session formally opens on 29 September. If Kristersson chooses to remain in office rather than resign after the election, the Riksdag can hold the mandatory post-election vote on the sitting prime minister from that date.
If at least 175 MPs vote against him, he must leave office and the Speaker begins the process of proposing another prime minister.
If Kristersson resigns beforehand, the government remains temporarily in office as a caretaker administration while negotiations take place.
Four failed attempts would lead to another election
Once the Speaker proposes a candidate for prime minister, the Riksdag must vote.
If 175 or more MPs vote against, the proposal fails. The Speaker can then conduct another round of consultations and submit a new candidate.
There can be a maximum of four failed prime ministerial votes. If all four proposals are rejected, Sweden must hold an extraordinary election within three months.
That remains an extreme scenario. Sweden has held an extraordinary parliamentary election only once, and the political pressure on the parties to reach an agreement would be considerable.
But recent history shows that government formation can take time. After the 2018 election, negotiations lasted 134 days before Stefan Löfven was approved again as prime minister.
The election winner and the next government may be two different questions
The immediate question is therefore mathematical: which side will end up with the most seats once the remaining votes have been counted?
The second question is political, and potentially more difficult.
An opposition majority would give Andersson the initiative, but Vänsterpartiet and Centerpartiet currently have incompatible positions on who should sit in government. A centre-right recovery would leave Kristersson facing his own negotiations over the future balance between Moderaterna and Sverigedemokraterna.
The Swedish election may therefore produce a clear final seat count well before it produces a clear government. The remaining votes will decide who enters the negotiations in the strongest position. What follows will depend on which of the parties’ pre-election red lines survive contact with parliamentary arithmetic.
