Sweden may need 45,000 prison and remand places by 2045, more than three times its current capacity, according to the latest forecast reported by SVT. The projection by the Swedish Prison and Probation Service (Kriminalvården) also suggests that the agency’s annual costs could reach SEK 80–85 billion (€7.2–7.6 billion).
The country currently has around 13,000 places in prisons and remand centres, which hold people awaiting trial or other judicial decisions. Its existing expansion plan envisages roughly 20,000 places by 2035. The new estimate of 45,000 places by 2045 is a longer-term projection, not a programme of construction already approved and funded.
Why Sweden may need more prison places
The agency’s previous forecast, issued in the spring, put the long-term requirement at 34,000 places. The new figure is 11,000 higher. According to reporting by TT, the agency estimates that changes to the criminal sentencing system could account for nearly 24,000 additional inmates in the longer term.
The upward revision follows a series of tougher sentencing measures adopted by the Swedish Parliament. Some have yet to receive dates for entering into force. They include ending certain sentence reductions for multiple offences, restricting mitigating factors and requiring people serving prison terms of less than six years to complete three-quarters, rather than two-thirds, of their sentences before conditional release.
Rikard Jermsten, who became the agency’s director-general in May, described the scale of the challenge to SVT:
“We may need the equivalent of five Kumla prisons a year to manage this increase in capacity.”
Annual costs could exceed €7 billion
According to the forecast, the prison and probation service’s total annual expenditure could rise from SEK 24 billion (€2.2 billion) in 2026 to SEK 80–85 billion in 2045. These figures concern the agency’s projected yearly costs, not a one-off price for building new prisons. The euro equivalents use the European Central Bank’s reference exchange rate for 26 October 2026.
The prospect has prompted disagreement over the effectiveness and financial consequences of Sweden’s sentencing reforms. Felipe Estrada, a criminology professor at Stockholm University, warned in comments reported by SVT that the expansion could divert resources from preventing reoffending, without reducing crime as intended.
Fredrik Kärrholm, an MP for the Moderate Party (Moderaterna), disputes the forecast’s assumptions. He argues that longer sentences can prevent repeat offenders from committing further crimes while in custody and may therefore reduce future admissions.
Justice Minister Gunnar Strömmer, also of the Moderate Party, told SVT that major expansion would still be required, alongside other measures to maintain prison safety and work to prevent reoffending.
Jermsten has acknowledged the uncertainty involved in forecasting the effects of rapidly adopted reforms. The agency says its estimates will have to be adjusted as the actual consequences become clearer.
