Sweden’s 2026 election has produced an exceptionally close result, with the opposition holding a narrow lead over the outgoing governing parties as counting continued into the early hours of Monday. With about 94% of electoral districts counted, the preliminary distribution gave the opposition 176 of the Riksdag’s 349 seats, against 173 for the parties supporting the outgoing government.
The figures remain provisional. Late advance votes and ballots cast abroad could still change the balance when they are counted later this week, meaning Sweden may have to wait several days before knowing which side has definitively won the election.
Sweden’s election leaves only a few seats between the blocs
According to SVT’s live results, at around 03:40 on 14 September the opposition parties had 176 seats, while the four parties that have supported the government under the Tidö Agreement had 173.
The opposition total currently consists of 100 seats for Socialdemokraterna, 29 for Vänsterpartiet, 25 for Centerpartiet and 22 for Miljöpartiet. On the other side, Moderaterna has 70 seats, Sverigedemokraterna 62, Kristdemokraterna 22 and Liberalerna 19.
The numbers have already shifted several times during the night. Earlier projections showed a 175-174 split, and SVT’s election-night forecast estimated a 90% probability that this would eventually be the final distribution.
The difference is therefore small enough that a limited number of remaining votes could still alter the parliamentary majority.
Socialdemokraterna remains the largest party but loses ground
Socialdemokraterna is once again Sweden’s largest party, with around 28.1% of the vote in the preliminary count. That is about 2.3 percentage points below its 2022 result and would represent the party’s weakest parliamentary election result since 1928 if the figure holds.
Moderaterna, led by outgoing Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson, is second at approximately 19.9%, up around 0.8 percentage points.
The most significant decline among the major parties is recorded by Sverigedemokraterna, which stands at about 17.6%, roughly three points below its previous result.
Several smaller parties have gained ground. Vänsterpartiet is at 8.2%, Centerpartiet at 7.1%, Kristdemokraterna at 6.2%, Miljöpartiet at 6.1% and Liberalerna at 5.4%. Crucially for the outgoing governing bloc, Liberalerna appears comfortably above Sweden’s 4% parliamentary threshold, removing one of the main uncertainties that had surrounded the election campaign.
Magdalena Andersson is ahead, but forming a government could be harder
The current numbers put Socialdemokraterna leader Magdalena Andersson in the stronger parliamentary position. Speaking at her party’s election gathering, Andersson said that if the result holds, Sweden would have a new government.
But winning more seats than the opposing bloc does not automatically produce a straightforward governing coalition.
The parties currently counted together as the opposition range from Vänsterpartiet on the left to the more centrist Centerpartiet. SVT’s political analysis notes that even if the opposition finishes with the largest number of seats, assembling a viable government could remain difficult.
Sweden uses negative parliamentarism. A prime minister does not need an absolute majority voting in favour, but must avoid having a majority of the Riksdag vote against them. This gives parties outside a formal coalition considerable influence over whether a government can take office.
For Kristersson, the narrow result means defeat has not yet been formally conceded. His four-party parliamentary base, consisting of Moderaterna, Sverigedemokraterna, Kristdemokraterna and Liberalerna, remains close enough to the opposition that the final count still matters.
The decisive votes may not be counted until Wednesday or Thursday
The reason the result may remain uncertain is Sweden’s system for handling some late advance votes and overseas ballots.
According to the Swedish Election Authority, as reported by SVT, late advance votes and votes cast abroad are expected to be counted on Wednesday or Thursday. More than 3.6 million people voted early this year, a record number.
These ballots usually do not change the overall winner. In an election this close, however, even a relatively small movement between parties could affect the allocation of one or more seats.
Sweden has experienced a similar situation before. In the 1979 election, the ballots traditionally known as the onsdagsrösterna, or “Wednesday votes”, played a decisive role in determining the parliamentary majority.
Sweden may know the winner before it knows its next government
The arithmetic of the Sweden election 2026 is therefore only the first part of the political story.
The final count could establish which bloc has more seats within days, but negotiations over who can actually command enough support in the Riksdag may take considerably longer. The new parliament is due to convene later in September, after which the process of electing a speaker and testing possible candidates for prime minister can begin.
For now, the clearest conclusion from election night is that Swedish voters have produced an almost evenly divided parliament. Even if the opposition’s narrow advantage survives the remaining count, the next phase will be defined less by the size of that lead than by whether Magdalena Andersson can turn it into a workable parliamentary majority.
