Finland’s relationship with Russia will not return to as it was

Finland’s relationship with Russia will have to be redefined once the war in Ukraine ends, President Alexander Stubb said on Tuesday, 25 August, while calling on Finnish society to remain vigilant against Russian hybrid operations and disinformation. Speaking at the annual meeting of Finland’s heads of mission in Helsinki, Stubb said that Russia will remain Finland’s neighbour, but that any future normalisation of relations will depend primarily on Moscow’s actions.

“Russia is and will remain our neighbour. When the war ends, we will begin to redefine our relationship as neighbours from a new position,” Stubb said in his official address to Finnish ambassadors.

That new position, he argued, is fundamentally different from the one Finland occupied before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Finland joined NATO in 2023, turning its approximately 1,340-kilometre eastern frontier into part of the alliance’s border with Russia.

“The border between Finland and Russia has become a border between NATO and Russia. This need not mean an iron curtain,” Stubb said. He added that he hoped the two countries would eventually be able to maintain a functioning relationship again, while stressing that “Russia’s own actions will determine how our relationship evolves.”

Finland’s relationship with Russia now rests on NATO membership

The comments outlined a long-term approach in which Finland does not regard permanent isolation from Russia as inevitable, but also does not envisage a return to the relationship that existed before the invasion of Ukraine.

According to Stubb, Finland’s NATO membership has strengthened both its security and its international position. He argued that European allies must now assume more responsibility for their own defence while avoiding a separation between Europe and the United States.

Speaking to journalists after the address, Stubb said NATO’s deterrence should ultimately make a Russian attack on Europe unattractive. According to Yle, he said the objective was to create a situation in which, by 2040, Russia would have no incentive to attack Europe.

Stubb also called for what he described as a more European NATO, with greater European military capabilities, while maintaining the transatlantic relationship.

Stubb warns Finland about Russian hybrid operations

The Finnish president also urged society to remain vigilant while the war in Ukraine continues.

Stubb told reporters that he expected Russia to continue different forms of hybrid activity against Western countries for as long as fighting continued. He cited sabotage targeting undersea cables, GPS interference, airspace violations and disinformation among the forms such operations could take.

“And here I also call for a certain vigilance from Finnish society: there is no reason to repeat Russian propaganda,” Stubb said, according to Yle’s report from the press conference.

He said the period of uncertainty affecting Finland and the rest of Europe would continue, making social cohesion particularly important.

“The most important thing is that society remains united and therefore stable,” Stubb said.

Stubb sees no quick peace agreement for Ukraine

Stubb had arrived in Helsinki directly from a 48-hour visit to Ukraine, where he attended events marking the country’s 35th Independence Day together with his spouse, Suzanne Innes-Stubb.

During the trip, the presidential couple had to move into a shelter during an air raid alert in Kyiv. Stubb later described the episode as routine, saying they followed instructions and remained in shelter for about 15 minutes.

Asked about negotiations to end the war, Stubb said he considered a peace settlement within the next few weeks highly unlikely. He said he had recently spoken with Jared Kushner, who has been involved in US mediation efforts, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

According to Yle, Stubb described three elements he considered necessary for a settlement: a ceasefire, a form of free-trade zone around the current front line and some form of external intervention or involvement.

He also characterised the invasion as a strategic failure for Russia and reiterated Finland’s support for Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic integration.

“At the end of the war there will certainly be a peace agreement. We will see Ukraine as a member of the EU and NATO, not as part of Russia,” he said.

Stubb calls for flexible European integration

Russia and Ukraine formed part of a broader foreign-policy argument in Stubb’s speech. He identified NATO, the European Union and the United Nations as three central institutions through which Finland should seek to influence international developments.

On the EU, Stubb argued that Europe needs greater political capacity, economic strength and defence capabilities. His central proposal was what he called “flexible integration”, moving away from an exclusively all-or-nothing model of European cooperation.

Such an approach, he said, could accelerate Ukraine’s integration while also bringing countries such as Norway, the United Kingdom, Canada and Iceland as close as possible to the EU.

“Almost every country in Europe either wants to join the Union or draw closer to it. The EU must leverage this,” Stubb said in his official speech.

For Finland, the argument connects the future of relations with Russia to a broader transformation already under way. Any eventual reopening towards Moscow would take place from within NATO and an increasingly integrated European security framework, rather than through the bilateral balancing that characterised much of Finland’s earlier relationship with its eastern neighbour.