As negotiations resume on Monday morning, Troels Lund Poulsen faces the hardest task in Danish politics: turning a fragmented Folketing into a workable government. The Venstre leader has taken over as royal investigator, but the change of negotiator has not removed the contradictions that made the first round of talks fail.
In this article we will try to focus on the task now facing Lund Poulsen. Three broad scenarios are being discussed in Danish politics. All of them are possible on paper. None of them looks easy.
A blue government would need unstable support
The most direct option for Lund Poulsen is to test whether Denmark can get a blue government built around Venstre, Liberal Alliance, the Conservatives, Danmarksdemokraterne and Dansk Folkeparti, with support from the remaining right-wing seats.
This would match the demand from parts of the right for a government without the Social Democrats (Socialdemokratiet). It would also allow Venstre to claim that the change of negotiator has produced a real alternative.
But this is the most fragile scenario. The blue camp is not cohesive. Borgernes Parti has already lost half of its parliamentary group after entering the Folketing, and several independent MPs now sit on the outer right. Building a government that depends on such a fluid parliamentary base would be risky from the start.
There is also the problem of the Moderates (Moderaterne). Lars Løkke Rasmussen’s party was created as a rejection of bloc politics and of governments dependent on the political extremes. A right-wing government resting heavily on Dansk Folkeparti or unstable independent mandates would sit uneasily with that identity.
The blue scenario is therefore the clearest politically, but also the hardest to stabilise.
A blue-plus-centre model runs into ideological walls
A second option would be to reduce dependence on the outer right by bringing Radikale Venstre (Social Liberals) into the equation. In numerical terms, this could make a centre-right project more stable.
Politically, however, it is extremely difficult. Radikale Venstre and Dansk Folkeparti (Danish People’s Party) have been among the sharpest opponents in Danish politics for decades, especially on immigration, integration and Europe.
This model would therefore require parties with fundamentally different views to support the same government. It would also require Dansk Folkeparti to accept a more centrist line, or Radikale Venstre to tolerate a government supported by parties it strongly opposes on core issues.
The result is a scenario that may work in a seat calculator, but looks far less credible as a governing project.
A broad centre government is the most logical, and the hardest to sell
The third scenario is the one closest to Lars Løkke Rasmussen’s long-standing preference: a broad government across the centre, potentially involving Socialdemokratiet, Venstre, Moderaterne, the Conservatives and Radikale Venstre.
This model would be more stable numerically. With these parties, a government could reach around 93 seats, giving it a comfortable parliamentary majority. It would also bring together several of Denmark’s traditional government-bearing parties and reduce dependence on the outer wings.
But the political obstacles are serious. Venstre and the Conservatives have little appetite for becoming junior partners in another government led by Mette Frederiksen. At the same time, it is difficult to imagine the Social Democrats entering a government without the prime minister’s office, especially as they remain the largest party.
The Social Democrats would also prefer to bring SF into a government, after SF’s strong election result. But SF has rejected the idea of governing with Venstre and the Conservatives, while Venstre and the Conservatives do not want to sit in government with SF.
This makes the broad centre model both attractive and blocked. It may be the most stable outcome, but it requires several parties to explain to their voters why they are repeating or expanding a type of cooperation that proved costly in the election.
Lund Poulsen must prove whether the right has a real alternative
Lund Poulsen’s immediate task is not simply to form a government. It is to prove whether the right and centre-right can produce a credible alternative to Frederiksen.
That is difficult because the blue camp has no clear internal hierarchy. Venstre remains the largest party on the right, but only narrowly and after its worst election result ever. Liberal Alliance and Dansk Folkeparti both gained ground and have stronger ambitions. The Conservatives want influence, while the Moderates still define themselves as a centrist party rather than as part of a traditional blue bloc.
This means Lund Poulsen must do two things at once. He must negotiate across blocs, while also testing whether his own side can agree on leadership, policy and parliamentary discipline.
If he fails quickly, it will strengthen the argument that there is no viable blue alternative. If he makes progress, he could change the balance of the entire government formation process.
The real dilemma is between clarity and viability
Each scenario gives Lund Poulsen something, but also takes something away.
A blue government would give political clarity, but may lack stability. A blue-plus-centre model could improve the numbers, but creates deep ideological contradictions. A broad centre government could offer durability, but would be hard for both Venstre and the Social Democrats to sell after the punishment they received at the election.
That is why Lund Poulsen’s mission looks so difficult. The problem is not that there are no possible coalitions. The problem is that every possible coalition contains a contradiction large enough to break it.
What happens now?
The first days of talks will show which scenario Lund Poulsen wants to test first. He may begin with the blue track, if only to establish whether it is possible. If that fails, the pressure will increase for a broader centre solution.
The most important question is whether any party is ready to move from its public position. Dansk Folkeparti would have to soften its resistance to the Moderates. Venstre and the Conservatives would have to reconsider a broader arrangement with the Social Democrats. The Moderates would have to decide how far right they are willing to go. And the Social Democrats would have to decide whether staying near power is worth another difficult compromise.
For now, Lund Poulsen has the mandate. What he does not yet have is a government model that looks both politically coherent and numerically secure. That is why his new role may be less a path to power than a test of whether Denmark’s fragmented parliament can still produce a stable government.
