Sweden’s civil defence is preparing for the possibility of a long war, after Mikael Frisell, director-general of the Swedish Civil Defence and Resilience Agency (Myndigheten för civilt försvar, MCF), said the public must be ready for a conflict that could last up to three years. The warning, given in an interview with Swedish Radio on Saturday, reflects Stockholm’s broader effort to rebuild civil preparedness after decades of post-Cold War downsizing.
Why Sweden is talking about a long war now
Frisell said current wars last around three years on average, and that Sweden therefore has to prepare for a prolonged conflict rather than a short emergency. He linked that assessment to the lessons of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, where attacks on civilian targets with drones and missiles have become part of daily life. He recently visited Ukraine and said the experience reinforced how modern war affects not only the military front, but also homes, infrastructure and essential services.
His comments fit into a wider Swedish shift in defence planning. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Sweden has accelerated the rebuilding of its total defence model, which combines military defence with civilian resilience. That process gained further weight after Sweden joined NATO on 7 March 2024, ending two centuries of military non-alignment.
The three-year warning and the three-month planning benchmark
The three-year figure is not, strictly speaking, Sweden’s formal benchmark for how long society must immediately hold out on its own. Frisell told Swedish Radio that there is research behind the idea that contemporary wars are prolonged, but he also pointed to a more specific planning assumption already adopted by Swedish authorities.
According to the joint planning framework for total defence for 2025–2030, Sweden’s total defence system must be able to function during at least three months of a major war in Europe. The purpose of that benchmark is to ensure that the state, municipalities, regions, businesses and core services can keep operating during an initial phase of high-intensity conflict, while adapting to a potentially longer war.
In practice, that means Frisell’s message was both strategic and political. The agency is not saying that Sweden expects a war lasting exactly three years. Rather, it is telling the public that preparations must be made for a conflict that would not end quickly, and that the first months of resilience are only the beginning of a much longer national effort.
How the MCF is reshaping Sweden’s civil preparedness
The agency leading this work was itself reshaped at the start of 2026. As of 1 January, the former Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency (Myndigheten för samhällsskydd och beredskap, MSB) became the Swedish Civil Defence and Resilience Agency, a change intended to underline that war preparedness now takes priority within the broader emergency system.
The Swedish government has presented the name change as part of a more serious security posture. On its official website, the government says Russia’s war against Ukraine has created Sweden’s most serious security crisis since the Second World War. In parallel, the MCF has continued distributing the updated brochure In case of crisis or war, which gives households practical advice on food, water, communications and self-sufficiency, and has also launched a similar preparedness guide for businesses.
This is part of a broader effort to rebuild systems that had largely been dismantled after the Cold War. Frisell said in the radio interview that civil defence was in practice shut down in previous decades and now has to be built up again.
A bigger Nordic and European security shift
The warning also reflects a wider regional trend. Across northern Europe, governments have increasingly framed resilience as a core part of national security, not just an issue for the armed forces. In Sweden, that has meant stronger emphasis on stockpiling, emergency planning, public information and the role of companies and local authorities in wartime.
At the same time, Sweden has expanded its military ambitions. The government said in March 2025 that defence spending could rise to 3.5 percent of GDP by 2030, with loan-financed investments worth more than SEK 300 billion, equivalent to about €26.8 billion. Civil preparedness and military rearmament are therefore being developed together, in line with Sweden’s view that deterrence depends on whether society can continue functioning under pressure.
What Sweden wants citizens to understand
The political message behind Frisell’s warning is not that war is inevitable, but that preparedness has become a normal part of state policy. Swedish authorities increasingly present civil defence as a shared responsibility involving institutions, businesses and households.
That approach is likely to remain central as Sweden adapts to its role inside NATO and to a European security environment shaped by Russia’s war in Ukraine. The message from Stockholm is that resilience is no longer about enduring a few days of disruption. It is about preparing society for the possibility of a long conflict, and ensuring that civilian life, democratic institutions and essential services can continue under extreme pressure.
