NATO defence spending will be at the centre of next week’s summit in Ankara, where the alliance is expected to publish updated figures showing which European members have increased their military budgets enough to ease pressure from USA. President Donald Trump.-
The figures, described by one diplomat to Finnish broadcaster Yle as a “list of shame”, will measure each member’s defence expenditure as a share of GDP. This year, however, fewer governments may have reason to feel exposed. According to NATO, European allies and Canada increased their combined defence expenditure by nearly 20% in real terms in 2025 compared with the previous year.
Defence spending becomes the summit’s main test
NATO members will meet in Ankara on Tuesday and Wednesday for a summit shaped by two connected questions: how quickly Europe can take more responsibility for its own conventional defence, and how far Washington intends to reduce its role.
At the 2025 summit in The Hague, allies agreed to raise defence and security-related spending to 5% of GDP by 2035. The commitment is divided into 3.5% for core defence requirements, including troops, equipment and readiness, and up to 1.5% for broader security investments, such as cyber defence, critical infrastructure and defence industry.
The Ankara meeting is expected to assess whether governments are turning those pledges into concrete capabilities. NATO says several allies could reach the 5% target already in 2026, although the broader benchmark remains a long-term objective.
Nordic allies move above the old 2% threshold
The Nordic countries now sit above NATO’s former 2% target, reflecting the region’s sharp security shift after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and the accession of Finland and Sweden to the alliance.
According to Yle’s graphic based on NATO data, Denmark is estimated at 3.34% of GDP, Norway at 3.2%, Finland at 2.87% and Sweden at 2.5%. Finland’s position is especially relevant in Ankara, as Helsinki has become one of NATO’s most closely watched new members since joining in 2023.
Tuomas Forsberg, professor of international politics at Tampere University, told Yle that Finland has built a strong position in the alliance in just three years. “Finland has succeeded in doing its part in the defence of its region. In addition, President Alexander Stubb has been active in reconciling European and U.S. views,” he said.
Europe faces uncertainty over U.S. intentions
The spending figures are politically important because Trump has repeatedly criticised NATO allies for relying too heavily on the United States. Reuters reported that European governments hope the Ankara summit will show that they are increasing defence budgets and taking greater responsibility for the continent’s security.
But Forsberg told Yle that Europe’s biggest problem is not a lack of weapons or even the possible withdrawal of some USA troops. The deeper problem, he said, is uncertainty over Washington’s long-term intentions.
“Europeans do not know what the USA intends to do and on what timetable. NATO defence planning is long-term, and this kind of uncertainty fits it very poorly,” Forsberg said.
He also argued that the idea, raised in the USA, that responsibility could be transferred to Europe within one or two years is not realistic.
More money has not yet changed deterrence
Higher defence budgets do not automatically translate into stronger deterrence. Tony Lawrence, who leads the defence policy programme at the International Centre for Defence and Security in Estonia, told Yle that Europe’s deterrent posture has not yet changed substantially.
“I would say that deterrence has not changed very much,” Lawrence said.
The main bottleneck is industrial capacity. European governments are trying to buy many of the same systems at the same time, while also supporting Ukraine. Air defence, long-range strike capabilities, intelligence and electronic warfare remain among the most important gaps identified by analysts.
NATO and the EU have encouraged joint procurement to reduce costs and improve interoperability, but coordination remains uneven. Many governments still buy equipment largely on their own, limiting the benefits of scale.
Ankara will test NATO’s new balance
The Ankara summit is expected to reaffirm NATO’s collective defence commitment under Article 5. Reuters reported that a draft declaration approved by NATO ambassadors includes an “ironclad commitment” to collective defence and a pledge of €70 billion in military assistance to Ukraine for 2026, with at least equivalent levels expected in 2027.
For Europe, the political message is clear: higher spending is no longer only about meeting a target. It is also about preserving USA engagement while preparing for a more European-led conventional defence model.
For the Nordic countries, the summit confirms their growing role inside NATO. Finland and Sweden have shifted the alliance’s northern geography, while Denmark and Norway are increasing spending in a region where Arctic security, Baltic Sea defence and support for Ukraine increasingly overlap. The “list of shame” may be less embarrassing than in previous years, but it will still show how far Europe remains from turning money into military readiness.
