The Defence Readiness Roadmap 2030 sets a five‑year plan for the EU to deter Russia and prepare for the “battlefields of tomorrow,” with proposals for joint procurement, flagship defence projects and tighter coordination with NATO.
Joint procurement and European supply targets
The Roadmap calls on member states to organise at least 40% of defence procurement as joint contracts by end‑2027, addressing fragmentation, cost inflation and interoperability gaps. It also sets supply‑chain targets: by 2028, at least 55% of arms purchases should come from EU and Ukrainian companies, rising to 60% by 2030.
The Commission argues that concentrating demand will speed delivery, reduce duplication and strengthen Europe’s industrial base.
Flagship projects: Eastern Flank Watch, drone defence, air and space shields
Three flagship initiatives anchor the plan. Eastern Flank Watch would integrate ground sensors, air defence and counter‑drone systems along the EU’s eastern border. A European Drone Defence Initiative (often dubbed a “drone wall”) would deploy layered anti‑drone capabilities with initial capacity by 2026.
A European Air Shield aims to build a multi‑layered air and missile defence network, while a Defence Space Shield would protect critical space assets and communications.
Deadlines and delivery: from 2026 launches to 2028 contracts
To be ready by 2030, projects in all priority areas—air and missile defence, artillery, military mobility, AI and cyber, missiles and ammunition, drones and anti‑drones, ground combat and maritime—should launch in H1‑2026.
By end‑2028, the Roadmap expects projects, contracts and financing to be in place to close the most urgent capability gaps, with operational milestones following through 2029–2030.
Funding and industrial capacity ramp‑up
Brussels sketches a financing mix that could mobilise up to €800 billion across instruments this decade, including SAFE loans for weapons, the European Defence Fund, the proposed European Defence Industrial Programme (EDIP) and the next multi‑annual budget.
In parallel, the Commission wants to map industrial capacity, identify bottlenecks in critical raw materials and ensure factories can surge production of ammunition, air‑defence interceptors and drones. Industry transparency on capacities and supply chains remains a sensitive point for several capitals.
NATO coordination and Ukraine’s role
The Roadmap stresses complementarity with NATO, avoiding parallel planning while improving EU mobility infrastructure and logistics to support Alliance operations. Ukraine features as a central partner: the EU envisages a heavily armed, “steel porcupine” Ukraine—backed by joint procurement, industrial partnerships and a structured drone alliance—to deter further Russian aggression and bolster European security.
National positions and governance debates
While the Commission underlines that member states remain sovereign over national defence, several capitals seek guardrails. Germany wants the plan to focus on enabling countries to meet national and international capability goals, not to centralise control. Sweden supports higher readiness but urges output‑oriented indicators that track tangible results rather than mandating specific EU tools. Southern members emphasise vigilance beyond the east, citing threats from the Middle East and Africa.
What to watch next
EU defence ministers will discuss the draft before it goes to the College of Commissioners and then to EU leaders. The Commission hopes to secure political approval of the flagships by year‑end, with H1‑2026 set as the launch window. Key tests will include: whether capitals sign joint contracts at scale; how quickly air‑defence and counter‑drone layers are deployed on the eastern flank; and whether industry can deliver on ammunition and interceptor output.
The Defence Readiness Roadmap 2030 reflects a shift toward a more integrated European defence posture, balancing national sovereignty, NATO complementarity and industrial autonomy. Its success will hinge on joint procurement discipline, timely financing, and sustained support for Ukraine.
