Orpo’s coalition is the preferred option for Finland’s next government for just 2 percent of voters, according to a Yle survey published on 24 August. The result suggests a strong appetite for political change ahead of the 18 April 2027 parliamentary election, but voters remain deeply divided over what should replace the current four-party government.
Prime Minister Petteri Orpo’s National Coalition Party (Kokoomus) currently governs with the Finns Party (Perussuomalaiset), the Swedish People’s Party (Svenska folkpartiet, SFP) and the Christian Democrats (Kristillisdemokraterna). Even among supporters of the governing parties, relatively few respondents selected the same coalition as their preferred arrangement after the election.
The survey was conducted by Taloustutkimus through its online panel and included 1,341 respondents. Its margin of error is 2.3 percentage points.
No clear alternative to the Orpo coalition
The rejection of the current Orpo coalition does not translate into broad support for one rival bloc.
The most popular option in the survey was an SDP-led red-green coalition, supported by 13 percent of respondents. It would resemble the political basis of the governments led by Antti Rinne and Sanna Marin between 2019 and 2023, bringing the Social Democrats together with parties including the Centre Party, Greens and Left Alliance.
An alternative SDP-led left-leaning government followed on 12 percent.
Two politically very different configurations were tied at 11 percent. One was a red-blue coalition built around the Social Democratic Party and the centre-right National Coalition Party. The other was a right-wing government led by Finns Party chair Riikka Purra.
A coalition combining the National Coalition Party, Finns Party and Centre Party, similar in its core composition to the government led by Juha Sipilä a decade ago, was preferred by only 5 percent.
Around one voter in ten could not identify a preferred coalition, while another 7 percent wanted an option that was not included among those proposed by the survey.
The SDP could lead several very different coalitions
The results give the Social Democratic Party (SDP) a central role without identifying its most likely partners.
Political science professor Elina Kestilä-Kekkonen of Tampere University told Yle that voters increasingly see the SDP as a natural party around which a government could be formed, but their preferred versions of such a government differ considerably.
“The Social Democratic Party is seen as a natural party to lead the next government, but voters have very different ideas about what a government built around the SDP might look like,” she said.
Those possibilities range from a red-green or more explicitly left-wing coalition to a traditional red-centre government with the Centre Party or a red-blue agreement with the National Coalition Party.
That uncertainty is also visible among Centre Party voters. They tend to prefer joining an SDP-led government rather than one led by the National Coalition Party, with a traditional Social Democrat-Centre arrangement their most popular option.
National Coalition voters increasingly look towards the SDP
The poll also points to significant pressure inside Orpo’s own electoral camp.
Only 5 percent of National Coalition Party supporters chose the current government formula as their preferred option. By contrast, 38 percent selected a red-blue coalition based on cooperation between the National Coalition Party and the SDP.
Kestilä-Kekkonen suggested that some centre-right voters may be looking for a more stable and politically moderate government partner.
The Swedish People’s Party has not formally ruled out continuing cooperation with the Finns Party. Its chair Anders Adlercreutz recently left that possibility open, meaning that the present coalition remains politically possible even if it attracts little support in this survey.
Finns Party voters show a very different preference. 68 percent favour a right-wing government led by Purra, potentially including the National Coalition Party and either the Centre Party, Christian Democrats or both.
Finland votes on 18 April 2027
Finland’s next regular parliamentary election will be held on 18 April 2027. Finnish electoral law schedules parliamentary elections for the third Sunday of April.
With around eight months remaining before election day, voting-intention polls currently place the SDP clearly ahead of its competitors. Yle’s August survey put the Social Democrats at 23.8 percent, compared with 17 percent for the National Coalition Party and 15.6 percent for the Finns Party. The Centre Party, Greens and Left Alliance could therefore become important in determining which combinations can command a parliamentary majority.
Finland does not elect its prime minister directly. Once parliamentary seats have been distributed, parties negotiate a governing programme and coalition capable of securing sufficient support in the Eduskunta.
The latest survey therefore offers less of a prediction of the next Finnish government than an indication of the starting conditions for those negotiations. Most voters appear ready for a different coalition, but there is currently no dominant consensus on which political direction should replace Orpo’s government.
