Swedish coffee consumption is now estimated to be a bigger driver of Amazon deforestation than Sweden’s imports of beef or soy, according to new research presented at the COP30 climate meeting.
Coffee, climate and Sweden’s Amazon footprint
Sweden is among the world’s heaviest coffee-drinking countries, with coffee deeply embedded in everyday life through the tradition of fika, workplace coffee breaks and a dense network of cafés. Until recently, the main focus of debates on the country’s imported climate footprint has been on beef, soy and other livestock-related products.
The new Amazon Footprint Report 2025, produced by the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) in cooperation with Chalmers University of Technology and the Stockholm Environment Institute, suggests that this picture is incomplete. By combining satellite images of land use in the Amazon with detailed data on agricultural production and trade flows, the researchers trace how European and Swedish consumption are linked to the expansion of farming into tropical forest.
Their conclusion is that while cattle ranching and soy cultivation remain the main drivers of deforestation in the Amazon as a whole, coffee has quietly become Sweden’s most deforestation-intensive imported product.
When coffee overtakes beef in Sweden’s deforestation table
According to the report, the expansion of cattle farming still contributes the most to deforestation across the Amazon region, followed by soy cultivation. For Sweden, however, the ranking looks different once trade flows and consumption patterns are taken into account.
For several years, Swedish coffee imports are estimated to have caused more Amazon deforestation than Swedish-related soy consumption. In the latest year assessed, 2022, coffee also overtook beef, becoming the imported product most strongly associated with the loss of rainforest.
The study estimates that Swedish coffee consumption in 2022 was linked to the clearing of around 331 hectares of Amazon rainforest, compared with approximately 236 hectares associated with beef imports over the same period. While these numbers are small in relation to the total Amazon area, researchers underline that they represent just one year and one importing country, and that cumulative impacts add up over time.
One of the report’s authors, Chalmers researcher Martin Persson, describes the work as the most detailed attempt so far to map the agricultural drivers of Amazon deforestation and connect them to specific consumer markets. Because the analysis goes down to a very local level, often to individual municipalities, it can identify where coffee, cattle or soy are pushing the forest frontier and which export markets are most closely tied to that expansion.
Why Swedish coffee demand weighs so heavily on the rainforest
There are several reasons why Swedish coffee demand appears so prominently in the Amazon Footprint Report. The first is volume. Swedes drink on average several cups of coffee per day, placing the country among the top coffee consumers per capita globally. Over a lifetime, an average Swedish consumer will drink tens of thousands of cups.
The second factor is geography. A large share of roasted and green coffee sold in Sweden originates from Brazil and other Latin American producers that have agricultural frontiers overlapping with sensitive forest areas. Even if the coffee itself does not come directly from recently deforested plots, it can be grown in regions where forest is being cleared for new plantations or where older farms have expanded into previously forested land.
Third, the report highlights how supply chains remain complex and opaque. Coffee beans can pass through several intermediaries before reaching Nordic roasters and retailers. This makes it difficult for importers, cafés and consumers to know whether a specific batch is linked to recent deforestation, to long-established farms, or to agroforestry systems that preserve tree cover.
EU deforestation rules and what they mean for coffee
The findings on Swedish coffee consumption arrive as the European Union prepares to implement its deforestation-free products regulation. The rules cover key commodities including coffee, cattle, cocoa, soy, palm oil, rubber and timber, along with a wide range of derived products.
Under the new framework, companies placing coffee on the EU market will have to carry out due diligence to show that beans and coffee products do not come from land that was deforested after a specified cut-off date. This includes collecting geolocation data for farms, assessing deforestation risk and keeping detailed records that can be checked by authorities.
EU countries are still negotiating how quickly and strictly these rules will be applied, and some governments have called for more time to prepare. For coffee, this debate is closely watched by producers and roasters in Brazil and across Latin America, who have already begun adapting to the new requirements.
For Sweden, the Amazon Footprint Report suggests that stricter traceability and deforestation-free sourcing in the coffee sector could significantly reduce the country’s imported forest footprint, even if overall consumption remains high.
From supermarket shelves to Brazilian farms
The report’s methodology links individual agricultural frontiers in the Amazon to export flows and then to consuming countries. In practice, this means that Swedish households buying everyday coffee in supermarkets and cafés are indirectly connected to decisions made by farmers, traders and authorities thousands of kilometres away.
In Brazil and neighbouring countries, coffee production takes several forms. Some farms grow coffee in shade-based systems that maintain a canopy of native trees and mix coffee with other crops. Others rely on sun-grown monocultures, which tend to require larger cleared areas and more inputs. Where land is scarce or property rights are weak, incentives to clear additional forest for coffee or pasture can be strong.
While coffee is not the dominant driver of Amazon deforestation compared with cattle or soy, the report shows that in consumer markets like Sweden, it plays a disproportionate role in the imported deforestation profile. This raises questions for roasters, retailers and public authorities about how to steer demand towards coffee that supports forest protection rather than undermining it.
Can Swedes keep their fika without cutting down the forest?
The new findings do not suggest that Swedes must give up coffee altogether. Instead, they point to the importance of changing how coffee is produced and sourced.
Several Nordic and European roasters already work with certified or independently verified supply chains, aiming to exclude beans linked to recent deforestation and to support farmers who invest in more sustainable practices. Initiatives promoting agroforestry, shade-grown coffee and restoration of degraded land can help lower the climate and biodiversity impact of coffee production.
For Sweden, one key question is how quickly major retailers, coffee brands and public procurement bodies will align with the upcoming EU rules and with longer-term climate targets. Clearer requirements for traceability, combined with support for smallholders in producing countries, could help ensure that Swedish coffee consumption becomes compatible with protecting the Amazon rainforest.
As the Amazon Footprint Report is discussed at COP30, the Swedish case illustrates how everyday consumer habits in a Nordic welfare state are tied to land-use decisions in one of the world’s most important ecosystems. The challenge for policymakers and companies will be to decouple the tradition of fika from the cutting of tropical forests, so that the social ritual can continue without contributing to the loss of the rainforest it now threatens.
