New genetic research from the Nordic countries suggests that suicide risk in depression can, to some extent, be predicted from the genes people carry – especially when depression starts before the age of 25. But while the findings open a door to more targeted prevention, they also highlight how complex and deeply social youth suicide is in Scandinavia and across the wider Nordic region.
Early-onset depression and genetic suicide risk
A large study published in Nature Genetics has compared the genetic profiles of more than 150,000 people diagnosed with depression with those of around 360,000 control subjects in Sweden, Denmark, Norway, Finland and Estonia. Researchers distinguished between early-onset depression (first diagnosis before age 25) and late-onset depression (first diagnosis after 50).
The results suggest that these two forms of depression have partly distinct genetic architectures. The team identified twelve genetic regions associated with early-onset depression, compared with two regions for late-onset cases. Individuals with a high genetic risk score for early-onset depression were twice as likely to attempt suicide within ten years of their diagnosis as those with a low genetic risk score. In practice, about one in four people in the high-risk group attempted suicide during that decade, compared with roughly one in eight in the low-risk group.
According to Lu Yi, senior researcher at the Department of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics (MEB) at Karolinska Institutet, the findings show that early-onset depression is more strongly hereditary and carries a higher absolute risk of suicide attempts than depression that begins later in life. The study draws heavily on Nordic population registers, which allow researchers to link genetic data with long-term health records at scale.
Researchers hope that in the future, polygenic risk scores could help clinicians to identify patients at particularly high risk of suicidal behaviour and, in turn, offer closer follow-up and more intensive support. At the same time, they stress that genes are only one piece of the puzzle: environmental stress, trauma, social conditions and access to care remain decisive for whether a person in distress survives a crisis.
Youth suicide in the Nordic countries: trends behind the statistics
The new genetic study lands in a region where suicide has long been recognised as a major public health challenge, including among young people.
According to a 2024 situation analysis from the Nordic Council of Ministers, 3,574 people died by suicide in the Nordic countries in 2022, and the overall suicide rate has only modestly improved since 2015, despite national prevention plans in almost all countries.
Looking at individual countries, Norway, Sweden and Denmark now record broadly similar overall suicide rates of around 11–12 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants, while Finland remains clearly above that level, at close to 20 suicides per 100,000 inhabitants, despite progress over the past 15 years.
Age-specific trends reveal a more worrying picture for the young:
- In Sweden, national surveillance data show that while the overall suicide trend has slowly declined since 2000, there was a long-term increase in suicide among people aged 15–24 from the mid-1990s up to 2022. Analysts are now examining whether this trend may have changed in the period that includes the COVID-19 pandemic.
- In Norway, the surge in suicides from 1970 to 1990 hit men aged 15–24 particularly hard, even though rates later fell from that peak. Today’s suicide rate is lower than in the 1990s, but still higher than in the 1950s and 1960s.
- In Finland, so-called “deaths of despair” – from suicide, alcohol and drug overdose – remain higher than the EU average, and suicide rates among men are nearly three times higher than among women.
A research overview on young men’s mental ill-health in the Nordics, commissioned by the Nordic Council of Ministers, concludes that suicide rates have increased among teenage boys and young men in the region in recent years. The report links this to a mix of deteriorating mental well-being, the after-effects of the pandemic and persistent gender norms that discourage help-seeking.
In global perspective, the situation is mixed. A 2024 analysis of youth suicide trends in eClinicalMedicine suggests that suicide rates among adolescents aged 15–19 have fallen in many European countries over the last three decades. Yet suicide remains one of the leading causes of death among young people worldwide, and the Nordic region is no exception.
Why young people in Scandinavia are at risk
The Nordic welfare states are often seen as high-trust, high-equality societies, yet the data on youth suicide in Scandinavia show that generous social protection alone does not eliminate risk.
Researchers highlight several overlapping factors:
- Mental ill-health and undiagnosed depression. Surveys across the region show rising levels of anxiety and depressive symptoms among young people, with many reporting that they do not feel mentally well.
- Gender norms and help-seeking. Studies indicate that boys and young men are overrepresented in suicide deaths, even though girls and young women attempt suicide more often. Traditional masculinity norms – emphasising self-reliance, control and toughness – can make it harder for young men to express vulnerability or seek professional help.
- Educational and labour-market pressure. The transition from school to work is a vulnerable period. The pandemic heightened this pressure through distance learning, disrupted routines and uncertainty about future prospects, which have been linked to greater stress and mental ill-health among young men in particular.
- Substance use and high-risk behaviours. Research points to higher levels of problematic gambling, substance use and risk-taking behaviours among some groups of young men, which can worsen mental health and increase the risk of self-harm.
- Methods and access. In the Nordic countries, hanging and suffocation are the most common suicide methods, but firearms still account for around one in five suicide deaths among men in Finland and Norway and about 13–14% in Denmark, Iceland and Sweden. Means restriction – such as safer firearm storage, barriers on bridges and reduced access to lethal medicines – remains a central component of prevention.
The new genetic findings add another layer: young people whose DNA places them in the highest risk decile for early-onset depression face an absolute suicide-attempt risk of around 26% in the decade after diagnosis, compared with about 12% in the lowest-risk group. That gap underscores how clinical depression, genetics and social context interact, rather than acting in isolation.
Nordic suicide prevention: from strategies to genetic tools
All Nordic countries have now adopted national suicide-prevention strategies, but experts warn that progress depends on long-term funding and implementation in everyday services such as schools, primary care and social services.
In Sweden, the government has commissioned a new national strategy for mental health and suicide prevention, published in 2023, which calls for stronger investment in children and adolescents and emphasises early detection and coordinated support. Additional investments in 2024 aim to translate these recommendations into concrete measures.
Across the Nordic region, policy papers highlight the importance of:
- Early intervention in schools, including systematic screening for mental distress, easy access to school counsellors and psychologists, and proactive outreach to pupils who are struggling.
- Cross-sector collaboration between health services, municipalities, social services and youth organisations to ensure that young people do not fall through the cracks when they move between school, higher education, unemployment and work.
- Targeted support for NEET youth – those not in education, employment or training – who face elevated risks of long-term mental ill-health and social exclusion.
- Work on masculinity norms, creating room for alternative, health-promoting masculinities that make it easier for boys and young men to talk about mental health and seek help in time.
Within this landscape, genetic research like the new early-onset depression study is seen as a potential tool rather than a standalone solution. Nordic researchers are cautious about how and when to use genetic risk profiles in clinical practice, noting that:
- Polygenic risk scores are probabilistic, not deterministic, and must be combined with clinical assessment and information about life events.
- There are ethical concerns about privacy, stigma and potential discrimination if genetic data are misused.
- Resources in mental health services are limited; identifying more people as “high risk” is only helpful if services can provide timely, high-quality support.
For now, the practical implications are mainly research-oriented: understanding how genetic risk interacts with brain development, stress and trauma could help refine interventions and identify critical windows in adolescence and young adulthood when prevention is most effective.
Looking ahead: what the Nordic experience can offer Europe
The combination of rich population registers, strong public health institutions and cross-border collaboration makes the Nordic region a kind of laboratory for suicide prevention, including among young people.
The new genetic findings on suicide risk in depression strengthen an already clear message from epidemiology: young people with early-onset depression need close, sustained follow-up, especially in the first decade after diagnosis. In Scandinavia, this means integrating genetic insights – carefully and ethically – into broader efforts that tackle waiting lists, school stress, labour-market insecurity and harmful gender norms.
For other European countries, the Nordic experience points to the importance of combining evidence-based mental health policies, social support systems and, increasingly, precision tools from genetics and neuroscience. But even in some of the world’s most comprehensive welfare states, the core of suicide prevention among young people remains relational: being seen, heard and supported in time.
Readers who experience suicidal thoughts, or who are worried about someone close to them, are encouraged to contact local emergency services, healthcare providers or suicide prevention helplines in their country for immediate support.
