A new Copenhagen municipal election poll by Megafon for TV 2 indicates the Social Democrats (Socialdemokratiet) could face a significant setback on 18 November 2025, with SF (Socialistisk Folkeparti) projected at 20.3% and Social Democrats at 13.3% in the capital. The figures raise the prospect of a historic change at City Hall (Københavns Rådhus), where the Social Democrats have held the Lord Mayor (overborgmester) post for more than a century.
Sf edges ahead with double‑digit gains
According to the survey, SF would climb roughly 9.3 percentage points compared to 2021, translating into 11 seats in the 55‑member council, while Socialdemokratiet would drop to eight seats. Enhedslisten (EL), which became the largest party in 2021, is measured slightly lower than at the last election and would hold about 13 seats.
If these levels are confirmed on election night, SF’s Sisse Marie Welling would enter coalition talks from a strengthened position against the Social Democrats’ candidate Pernille Rosenkrantz‑Theil.
Coalition arithmetic: 28 seats to govern
A governing majority in Copenhagen requires 28 seats out of 55. Even with strong showings, the red‑green parties (EL and SF) would still need partners—likely Radikale Venstre (the Social Liberals) or support from smaller parties—to reach a stable majority.
On the centre‑right, Det Konservative Folkeparti (The Conservatives), Venstre (Liberals) and other liberal‑conservative parties would also need multiple partners to assemble an alternative bloc. The outcome will hinge on post‑vote bargaining customary in Danish municipal politics.
Why Copenhagen matters for Socialdemokratiet
Copenhagen is central to Socialdemokratiet’s identity and national footprint. The party has led the capital almost continuously since the office was created—interrupted only briefly in 2004 during a mayoral transition.
A loss of the overborgmester post would reverberate beyond the city, testing Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen’s strategy after she personally backed Rosenkrantz‑Theil as candidate when Sophie Hæstorp Andersen moved to national government.
Poll specifics and caution for municipal surveys
The Copenhagen election poll suggests clear momentum on the left of centre, but municipal polling carries higher statistical uncertainty than national voting intention.
Turnout is typically lower, and many voters remain undecided until late in the campaign. Seat projections are indicative. Final allocation depends on vote shares, electoral alliances and post‑election negotiations. The next municipal vote is scheduled for 18 November 2025.
What to watch before 18 November
Policy trade‑offs during coalition talks could shape the post‑election landscape: housing affordability, urban development and the future of the city development company By & Havn are likely bargaining chips among the left‑of‑centre parties.
On the campaign trail, watch whether Socialdemokratiet stabilises support in key districts and whether SF can convert polling gains into votes without alienating prospective partners.
