Sweden’s birth rate is falling to historic lows, forcing preschools (förskolor) to close in several municipalities and raising the prospect of wider consolidation. With the fertility rate at about 1.4 children per woman and the decline ongoing in 2025, projections indicate that nearly one in ten preschools could shut by 2034 if current trends persist.
Fertility rate at 1.4 and still falling
In 2023 Sweden registered a fertility rate of 1.4 children per woman, well below the replacement level of 2.1. The downward curve continued into 2025: between January and May, just over 41,000 births were recorded—around 1,000 fewer than in the same period a year earlier. Demographers expect fewer births in the short term as families postpone childbearing amid economic uncertainty and shifting preferences.
Fewer children mean preschool closures
Forecasts for the decade from 2024 to 2034 suggest a drop of roughly 43,000 children of preschool age in Sweden. Education planners warn this could translate into the closure of about 800 preschools nationwide—nearly 10% of the total—through mergers, site shutdowns or the phasing out of small units. Some municipalities have already started to consolidate early-years capacity as enrolments fall.
Teachers report job insecurity and local disruption
Closures and consolidations are reshaping local early childhood provision. Preschool teachers report rising uncertainty about future employment and the continuity of pedagogical teams. “It creates significant anxiety about one’s future profession,” said preschool teacher Shilana Latif Najmaddin, after her workplace was shuttered, as reported by Dagens Nyheter. Families in affected areas also face longer commutes and fewer choices, especially in sparsely populated regions.
Nordic and EU context: a broader demographic headwind
Sweden’s experience mirrors a Nordic and European pattern of falling birth rates and ageing populations. Similar debates on childcare supply, workforce planning and long‑term population policy are underway across Northern Europe. For Sweden, the adjustment will likely involve rebalancing early‑years capacity while protecting quality standards and access, particularly in rural municipalities and low‑income urban districts.
If the downtrend in births continues, municipalities and the state will face choices on school network planning, teacher workforce reallocation, and family policy instruments. The outcome will shape early childhood education for the next decade, with implications for local labour markets and long‑term social cohesion.
