For the first time since 2022, European countries have collectively provided more military aid to Ukraine than the United States, according to newly released data from Germany’s Institute for the World Economy (Institut für Weltwirtschaft, IfW) in Kiel.
Shift in transatlantic support dynamics
The latest update from the IfW’s “Ukraine Support Tracker” reveals a significant shift in burden-sharing between Europe and the US. While the United States has not pledged any new aid since January 2025, European contributions surged in March and April, overtaking American assistance in total military support provided since the start of the war in February 2022.
“It is remarkable that Europe has closed the gap,” said Christoph Trebesch, director of the Ukraine Support Tracker project. However, he noted the data currently covers only a two-month window, leaving it uncertain whether this marks a permanent reconfiguration or a temporary spike in European efforts.
Nordic and British leadership
Support has not increased uniformly across Europe. The Nordic countries and the United Kingdom stand out as key drivers behind this surge. Sweden and Norway registered their highest monthly contributions to date in March, with the region collectively boosting military aid by €5.8 billion between January and April 2025.
The United Kingdom, traditionally one of Kyiv’s staunchest allies, committed an additional €4.5 billion during the same period, reinforcing its position as a leading European donor.
German decline raises questions
In contrast, Germany, previously the largest European supplier of military equipment to Ukraine, has significantly reduced its support. IfW estimates that Berlin contributed just over €650 million in the first four months of 2025 — a 70% drop compared to the same period in 2024.
This decline is particularly noteworthy given Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s repeated pledges to maintain robust support for Ukraine. The reduction cannot be attributed to Berlin’s new policy of withholding detailed aid disclosures, as this change only took effect in May 2025 and does not affect the current dataset.
Uncertain future for US involvement
The halt in USA aid stems from a political reassessment under President Donald Trump, who took office in January 2025. American support for Ukraine is currently “under review,” and there have been no new commitments since Trump assumed office. This development has led analysts to question whether European countries can sustainably replace American military deliveries if US assistance is suspended indefinitely.
For now, European governments have succeeded financially in compensating for the US absence. Whether this marks a lasting shift in geopolitical responsibility or simply a short-term adjustment remains to be seen.
About the Ukraine Support Tracker
The Ukraine Support Tracker maintained by IfW Kiel is one of the most comprehensive tools monitoring bilateral aid commitments to Ukraine. It tracks pledges of military, financial, and humanitarian assistance from 41 countries, including all EU member states. Institutional support from actors like the European Commission and the European Investment Bank is reported separately. Contributions from international organisations such as the IMF or private donors are excluded.
